Gulf CCUS Targets Face Sharp Cuts as Conflict Bites

Rystad Energy warns the Gulf's 2030 carbon capture target could fall by 8 Mtpa as conflict disrupts projects and inflates costs

10 Apr 2026

The Middle East's push to become a global carbon capture powerhouse is running into a wall of geopolitics and rising costs. New analysis from Rystad Energy concludes that the region's target of 20 million tonnes of CO₂ storage capacity per year by 2030 is no longer within reach, with the revised outlook pointing to roughly 12 million tonnes per year by 2035 instead.

That's a significant revision, and it carries consequences well beyond the Gulf. Middle Eastern exporters face growing pressure from European and Asian buyers over their emissions footprint, and blue hydrogen development depends directly on credible carbon capture infrastructure. Slipping timelines don't just delay a regional goal; they complicate decarbonisation plans across multiple industries and continents.

QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan capture facility sits at the centre of the story. The project secured a construction contract worth around $1.3 billion in late 2025, but it was always dependent on CO₂ from the adjacent LNG complex. Facility damage has disrupted that feedstock, and any recovery is expected to prioritise LNG output over carbon performance. The capture scheme, for now, is effectively on hold.

The cost picture compounds the operational disruption. Rystad's modelling found that a sustained 50% increase in energy prices could drive up the levelised cost of CO₂ capture and transport by around 30%. For industrial emitters already operating close to the margin, that's the kind of jump that can render a project unviable overnight. Only state-backed schemes are likely to retain a credible business case under those conditions.

What makes the situation notable is that none of the underlying logic for Middle East CCUS has changed. The geology is favourable, the trade pressure is real, and blue hydrogen needs the infrastructure. Rystad's analysts expect those drivers to reassert themselves once conditions stabilise, with the current project slate shifting into the mid-2030s rather than disappearing altogether.

Their advice to developers is practical: lock in equipment contracts early, build inflation-indexed tariffs Into agreements, and leave room in project timelines to absorb the shocks that, in this region, are now a structural feature rather than an exception.